基于有界协整方法的中国进口需求弹性研究

有界检验是由Pesaran等(2001)新提出的一种协整分析方法,本文利用这一方法对改革开放以来中国进口贸易与其决定因素之间的长期关系和需求弹性进行了分析。结果表明,无论是长期还是短期,中国的进口需求相对于价格缺乏弹性,但相对于收入具有较高的弹性。这一结论具有重要的政策含义:其一,某些国家力图通过促使人民币升值来缓解其贸易赤字的做法是缺乏论据支持的;其二,中国经济的增长是世界经济的积极贡献因素。     

资本结构影响因素稳健性检验

关于资本结构影响因素的理论和实证研究存在很多相互矛盾的结论,人们通常把这个问题归咎于外部因素的影响,而没有怀疑资本结构理论自身的稳健性;本研究发现相互矛盾的研究结果并非由外部因素引起,而是由于资本结构理论本身缺乏较强的稳健性。因此,传统的资本结构理论并不适用于指导我国企业的融资实践,应该从企业外部,而不是过去理论强调的“从企业内部”去寻找影响资本结构的因素。     

我国货币政策通过国际贸易传递的实证分析

本文利用相关分析、Granger因果关系分析和自回归分布滞后模型 ,对中国货币政策通过国际贸易传递的途径进行了实证分析 ,结论表明 ,我国货币政策无法通过汇率途径传递到国际贸易上 ,通过信贷传递到国际贸易上是扭曲的途径 ,货币政策能够通过物价途径对净出口有正面影响。     

基础设施投资与吸引外国直接投资关系的实证研究——基于我国经济转型期二者因果关系的检验

本文在现有国内外研究的基础上,依据我国改革开放20多年来的实际数据,针对基础设施投资与外国直接投资(FDI)之间的相关性进行了协整检验和格兰杰检验,结果发现:二者之间不仅存在协整关系,还存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即FDI是带动基础设施投资的格兰杰原因,而基础设施投资并不是引致FDI增加的格兰杰原因。本实证检验还用事实证实了目前许多地方政府以增加基础设施投资来吸引外商投资的盲目性。     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

信息化与工业化融合有界性的实证研究--基于我国31省市面板数据

以我国31个省（直辖市、自治区）1996～2012年的面板数据为基础，根据诺兰阶段模型、生产率悖论，提出“信息化与工业化”两化融合具有界限的假设。运用单位根检验及格兰杰因果检验对信息化与工业化融合进行实证研究，得出信息化对工业化具有促进作用，同时两化融合存在界限的结论。最后提出不同滞后期信息化与工业化平均水平比值的方法来测度界限，为政府决策提供依据。     

应用型本科大学数学课程考试模式研究

文章针对应用本科培养模式的特点,分析了大学数学课程教学及考试模式的不足,提出了应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试的改革设想。并且对应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试系统的架构和功能给出了框架式的设计,不但节约资源,而且可以较大程度上实现教考分离,将一考定结局的模式调整为分阶段分过程的考查。网络考试的模式不但可以更加真实合理地考核及评价学生,而且还能改变功利性教学的现状,客观地实现以考促学、以考促教的效果,更符合教育规律。从而印证了应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试模式改革的合理性。     

玩具机械物理能力验证技术分析及建议

文章介绍了广州海关技术中心玩具婴童用品实验室历年来组织的玩具机械物理领域的能力验证计划项目的基本情况,详细分析了各项目的技术要点和常见不满意问题,总结了现阶段该领域能力验证计划的开展情况。     

Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates*

This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.